At Ziggma, we look for companies that can grow shareholders' money while leaving the world better off. Comfort Systems USA (NYSE: FIX) just posted the best quarter in its history, yet the stock trades a third below its June record, and analysts see 45% upside. Its crews also get hurt far less often than the rest of the industry.
Every stock in our GoodStocks series has to clear the same test: shareholder returns and real-world impact that pull in the same direction, a pairing that four independent studies link to market outperformance. Comfort Systems clears it on the strength of its safety record and the careers it builds in the skilled trades.
Source: Ziggma
Today's price is an attractive entry point. The stock sits roughly 35% below its peak, at about 22x next year's expected earnings, while Comfort Systems has signed work covering well over a year of revenue.
Construction is dangerous work. Comfort Systems' recordable injury rate of 0.93 is well under half the industry average of 2.3, which means safer jobs for more than 21,000 employees.
Houston-based Comfort Systems installs and maintains the heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC), plumbing and electrical systems inside factories, hospitals, schools and, increasingly, data centers. It works out of 211 locations in 155 US cities.
The mechanical segment (HVAC, piping and plumbing) holds $12.2 billion of the backlog. The electrical segment is smaller but growing faster, with third-quarter revenue up 85%. A rising share is built off-site, in factories that assemble cooling and power systems into ready-made modules.
Ziggma projects about 10% annual industry growth. Comfort Systems grows far faster because technology customers made up 59% of 2026 revenue so far, up from 42% a year earlier. Its moat is people: skilled tradespeople are scarce, and Comfort Systems has one of the largest skilled workforces in building construction. About 37% of 2025 revenue came from steadier work on existing buildings.
Revenue has grown 24% a year over the past five years, and earnings per share 49% a year. The net profit margin was 4.7% in 2021 and is 13.0% today. That record earns a Ziggma Score of 92, with sub-scores of 88 for Growth, 82 for Profitability and 80 for Financial Health.
Source: Ziggma
Third-quarter revenue rose 54% to $3.77 billion, and earnings per share jumped 69% to $13.91. Operating cash flow topped $1 billion in a single quarter for the first time. The stock still fell 9.3% on worries about how long the data center boom lasts. Management disagrees: it bought back $341 million of stock in the quarter.
Backlog jumped $3.8 billion in one quarter, a company record, to $17.81 billion. That's roughly 4.7 quarters of revenue, rare visibility for a contractor.
The Ziggma Valuation sub-score is just 8, and at 4.6x sales the stock trades at more than twice its five-year average. Fast earnings growth changes the math. At $1,345.77, the stock trades at 27.4x this year's expected earnings and about 22x the 2027 consensus of $60.22 per share. Rival EMCOR trades near 19x, but grows revenue about 20% a year against roughly 50% here.
The average analyst target of $1,953 implies 45% upside. We think that's optimistic. Holding today's 27x multiple on 2027 earnings gets you about $1,650, roughly 23% higher.
Technology customers are now the majority of revenue, tying Comfort Systems to one spending cycle. Management warned that bookings could be lighter after this record quarter. Gross margin slipped to 24.8% in the third quarter from 25.9% in the second. The new factories add fixed costs that would bite if data center orders pause.
We see 12–45% upside over the next 12 months, with about 23% as our base case. If the market keeps paying today’s 27x multiple on next year’s earnings of $60.22 per share, the stock is worth about $1,650. If the multiple slips back to its five-year average of 25x, that falls to about $1,510, still 12% above today. Reaching the analysts’ $1,953 target would take a multiple of about 32x, which assumes investors pay up again for AI growth.
Comfort Systems' biggest impact is on the people who build the systems inside hospitals and factories. It keeps them safer than the industry does and trains them into skilled tradespeople, a worker-safety story that earns a positive Impact Score of 62 and echoes MSA Safety.
Source: Ziggma
In 2025, Comfort Systems recorded 0.93 injuries per 100 full-time workers against a construction average of 2.3. The board ties executive pay to safety results.
Comfort Systems hired 8,972 people in 2025 and runs a four-year apprenticeship that raises pay every semester. Enrollment in its in-house Comfort University more than tripled last year, to 2,959.
Old HVAC systems use far more energy than modern ones, and replacing them is everyday work. Comfort Systems completed 32 projects certified under LEED, the leading green building standard, in 2025.
Source: Ziggma
Emissions per hour worked fell 23% between 2023 and 2025, earning a Carbon Intensity Change sub-score of 81.
Data centers are among the fastest-growing sources of US power demand. Efficient systems make them less wasteful without shrinking their draw on the grid, and Comfort Systems doesn't report how much energy its work saves customers. That needs fixing, and we'll be watching.
Comfort Systems has more than a year of signed work and a stock a third cheaper than in June. The AI build-out is both the engine and the risk. For investors who can live with that, this is a chance to own the company wiring the digital economy, with crews that go home safe. You can compare it with other top scorers in our free stock screener.
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